Trump’s High Tariff Policy and Japan’s Future Amid Global Turmoil
Trump’s high tariff policy will inevitably alienate America’s allies, and in that sense, it is also certain to benefit China, which is rapidly strengthening its industrial and technological capabilities. When considering financial crisis avoidance from a first-principles perspective, the only fundamental solutions are eliminating waste, improving efficiency, and increasing taxes. In the long run, enhancing education and ensuring economic fluidity are the only viable options.
Now, in the age of AI, economic polarization, a renewed East-West Cold War, and catastrophic global warming, the world is heading toward an era of increasing division, where conflicting interests collide with force, leading to widespread chaos.
Japan is shifting from a "Galapagos syndrome" phase to an era of potential decline. It is crucial to find a way to "shrink smartly" while maintaining happiness. The most important environmental factors for this survival are comfort in housing and good health.
To endure the coming storm, a shelter—a comfortable home and food security—is absolutely essential. This is of utmost importance! As long as we have:
A place to live that protects against external threats and natural disasters with minimal cost
Secured food supplies
we can survive in any era.
Japan’s Economic Decline and Future Prospects
Due to poor leadership choices, Japan’s income levels are expected to drop to the global mid-tier. Below is data from a Nikkei article (March 28, 2025) on GDP per capita rankings:
2024 Rankings (Converted to 2017 Prices)
1st Luxembourg: $104,900
2nd Ireland: $87,900
3rd Switzerland: $83,200
4th Singapore: $73,300
6th USA: $66,900
25th South Korea: $29,700
29th Japan: $27,900
47th Russia: $11,800
Predicted 2075 Rankings (Growth Rate / Gap with Japan)
1st Luxembourg: $236,200 (+225% / 5.15× Japan)
2nd Ireland: $183,700 (+208%)
3rd Switzerland: $157,800 (+189%)
4th Norway: $144,600 (+197%)
5th USA: $144,400 (+215% / 3.15× Japan)
21st South Korea: $79,200 (+266% / 1.72× Japan)
42nd Russia: $47,200 (+400%)
45th Japan: $45,800 (+164% / 1.0× Japan)
(Source: Japan Center for Economic Research; Converted to 2017 prices)
For reference, the actual 2024 per capita GDP figures (before conversion) are as follows:
Luxembourg: $131,380 (3.88× Japan’s level)
Ireland: $106,060
Switzerland: $105,670
Singapore: $88,450
USA: $85,370 (2.52× Japan’s level)
South Korea: $35,563
Japan: $33,849
A Widening Economic Gap and Unaccounted Disaster Risks
This data clearly shows Japan’s declining rank and the widening growth gap. Notably, Japan has already fallen behind South Korea, and the disparity is projected to grow from 1.05× to 1.72× in the future.
However, this forecast does not account for major disasters that are almost certain to strike Japan by 2075, including:
A massive Nankai Trough earthquake (4-region linked earthquake)
A direct earthquake hitting the capital
Super typhoons intensified by global boiling
These catastrophic events could cripple Japan, leading to astronomical debt. If Japan maintains the current trajectory, national bankruptcy by 2075 is a real possibility. The combination of aging demographics, industrial decline, and inevitable hollowing out could push Japan beyond the 100th rank, transforming it into a failed state.
I am deeply concerned that Japan’s irrational decision-making mindset from 85–90 years ago might resurface, potentially turning the country into a poverty-stricken, crime-ridden nation.
The Two Most Critical Survival Priorities
A low-cost, disaster-resistant, and secure living space
Guaranteed food security
With these two essentials, survival is possible in any era. Even if Japan avoids wars with foreign nations, domestic conflicts over resources and rampant crime among Japanese citizens seem inevitable.
As repeatedly emphasized in our web seminars, shelter homes and fortified housing are becoming indispensable.
Japan must not forget its past: 80 years ago, the country was reduced to ashes, caused the deaths of 15 million foreigners, and wasted 3.1 million of its own people in war. Understanding this history is critical.
